Prediction markets such as Kalshi and Polymarket let people trade contracts on elections, product launches, sports outcomes and more. They can aggregate information. For casual users they also blend betting, trading and asymmetric information — especially when a contract hinges on one person’s health, campaign or private content calendar.
The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has stressed that listed contracts should not be readily susceptible to manipulation, and has highlighted sports “injury” style markets as sensitive. In early 2026 it also publicised enforcement around Kalshi cases involving a political candidate trading their own race and a media figure trading a market tied to their channel — reminders that classic abuses (insider trading, wash trading, spoofing) migrate to event venues.
Retail takeaway: treat these markets as speculative betting with sharper sharks, not as a homework club. Prefer contracts with public data; assume someone may know more; never deposit money you need next month.
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This article is for general information only. It is not legal or financial advice. Details change. If you have lost money, contact your bank or card issuer and use the routes on the help pages.